You apperceive you’re in for a acceptable anniversary of football aback the four best casual offenses in the NFL are all appointed to face anniversary other. That’s what we get in these appointment championships.
Based on numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics, the Buffalo Bills, Blooming Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the four best able casual attacks in the absolute alliance this year. Those are the four teams larboard continuing for this weekend. Ya anticipate casual ability ability matter?
That agency — alike on a two-game slate — there will be no curtailment of acceptable plays at quarterback, advanced receiver, and bound end.
But active back? Whew, buddy; that is a altered discussion.
Not alone are we ambidextrous with abrasion questions for two teams, but the one amateur who logged an 80% breeze amount aftermost anniversary — Devin Singletary — is hideously inefficient and allotment of a aggregation that is accomplished absolutely behindhand the arena game. Usually our affair on FanDuel is that we can use alone three active backs per lineup; this week, it’ll be a attack to ample in alike two spots.
As such, we’ve got to dig into both of these games, try to analyze the optimal action to arrange at active back, and afresh see how that influences our plan of advance elsewhere. So let’s dive in to this weekend’s amateur and see how assorted situations impacting anniversary aggregation should adapt the way we body lineups for Sunday.
Between the two games, this is the one that is acceptable to be beneath accepted for DFS players. It has a lower absolute and appearance two beneath agitative quarterbacks. You can accept why bodies would adopt the AFC side.
But the gap in the two totals is aloof 1.5 points, and there are affluence of affidavit to dig this one. There’s an allurement to be college on this bold than the accessible in adjustment to be different. Thankfully, we’ve got assorted means to go at this bold afterwards authoritative aberrant decisions.
That starts at active back, breadth we acceptable accept the highest-upside players at the position. You are about bound into baronial Aaron Jones first, and you can body a able case for either Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones.
Aaron Jones’ acceptance aftermost anniversary was frustrating; there’s no abstinent that. He absent assignment to both Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon, and he came through for fantasy alone because he bankrupt off a continued play. It’s adamantine to await on those in back-to-back weeks.
But the broader account on Jones is still advantageous about to others on the slate. In the amateur he has played with Williams and Davante Adams, Jones has averaged 103.0 yards from scrimmage. He’s an able amateur who gets artistic touches, acceptance him to arbor up yardage in a hurry. Alike if he does lose assignment to Williams and Dillon, he can still pay off.
Additionally, this is a aegis adjoin which Jones’ skillset is added valuable. The Buccaneers accomplished aboriginal adjoin the rush, per numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics, and they’re about to get Vita Vea aback to clog up the interior. You appetite to advance them through the air, an breadth area Jones excels.
We saw the Packers booty this access in their Anniversary 6 antagonism with Tampa Bay. There, they threw 66.7% of the time on aboriginal downs in the aboriginal half. They got wiped in the game, but they were additionally up 10-0 at one point; their pass-heavy means weren’t a aftereffect of the scoreboard. They anticipation that was the best way to advance this defense. Jones had four targets in that aboriginal bisected afore things got out of hand.
Jones’ acceptance is acceptable to be annoying. He’s activity to lose assignment at an adverse time to Williams or Dillon, and you’re activity to appetite to abandon your alien at the TV. But the types of touches Jones gets acquiesce us to still rank him aboriginal amid the backs at $8,000.
The Anniversary 6 plan of advance can additionally accord us some optimism about the Bucs’ backfield. We aloof accept to adjudge who will be the one to benefit.
The Packers as a aggregation are congenital to stop the canyon rather than the rush. The Bucs accustomed this in Anniversary 6 and had a 47.8% early-down first-half canyon rate, a big aberration from their full-season mark of 61.0%.
The accessible counterpoint is that this is a abounding altered breach now than it was then. They’ve aback added Antonio Brown, and Mike Evans is convalescent now than he was then. Those are absolutely accurate credibility and things we should consider.
Even still, the Bucs’ early-down first-half canyon amount in two playoff amateur is 56.1%. Although the casual breach is lighting things up, they’re still accommodating to run the ball. They accept allurement to do so here, so we shouldn’t be afraid if they accept a agnate gameplan in the rematch.
That could put us heavily on Fournette. He had a abounding role aftermost week, notching 17 carries and 6 targets. He could get that again, which is why Fournette is an option.
But Ronald Jones may be the added adorable allotment amid the two. Allotment of this is salary-related as Jones is $5,600 with Fournette at $7,200. With how appetizing the high-salaried pass-catchers are, that’s a cogent gap.
Jones’ role was additionally a bit underrated aftermost week. Although Fournette was the bright advance advantage and pass-catching back, Jones still had aloof four beneath carries. Jones was additionally the added able back, accretion the team’s accepted credibility for the drive on 69.2% of his carries. Fournette did so aloof 35.3% of the time.
Finally, Jones seemed to be the adopted aback central the red zone. He had four carries there while Fournette had two carries and a target. Jones had the abandoned befalling amid the two central the five-yard line.
Jones is an added anniversary removed from his abrasion and said he’s activity bigger than he did a anniversary ago. If he keeps the aforementioned role he had aftermost week, he’s in comedy at $5,600. However, with some advancement amplification possible, Jones grades out as actuality one of the added acceptable running-back plays on the slate. It’s not to say you shouldn’t use Fournette, but it ability be astute to booty the abatement on Jones added often.
With Jones now healthy, the abandoned abiding abrasion catechism mark for the Bucs is Brown. He absent convenance on Wednesday and Thursday and seems accurately questionable. That should up our absorption in Evans, whose bacon is aloof $6,600.
Even in the amateur Evans has played alongside Brown, Evans has absorbed the high-leverage targets. Here, a “deep” ambition is one added than 15 yards aloft the band of scrimmage.
If Brown is taken out of the equation, the all-embracing allotment should go up, giving Evans both a attic and a ceiling.
You could attending aback at the Anniversary 6 antagonism and get afraid about Evans. There, he had aloof two targets. Accustomed the backbone of the Packers’ corners, that’s a fair concern.
However, this is not the aforementioned Evans we had aback then. Leading up to that aboriginal game, Evans absent convenance that Wednesday due to an abate abrasion and didn’t convenance at all the antecedent week. His bloom has acutely trended up aback then, and he has 110 accepting yards in three of the accomplished bristles games. Aback you can get that assembly for aloof $6,600, it’s adamantine to canyon up no amount how acceptable the opposing accessory may be.
If Brown can’t go, it would bang up the address in Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, as well. Godwin isn’t acceptable to get endless of downfield looks, but his all-embracing ambition allotment addition would be abounding to accomplish him a application at $6,800. Gronkowski gets the high-leverage looks but additionally avalanche collapsed generally because that’s basically all he gets. So, if Brown can’t go, accord boosts to those two. But whether Brown plays or not, Evans is the top advantage here.
As for Tom Brady, he’s the lowest-salaried quarterback on this slate. He’s additionally acceptable to be the atomic accepted accustomed the adumbrated totals for anniversary team. But Brady still belongs in our amateur pool.
Brady’s casual ability has been so acceptable that he’s breeding upside alike afterwards rushing. He has at atomic 29 FanDuel credibility bristles times this year, according to Patrick Mahomes and added than Aaron Rodgers (three). It’s aural the ambit of outcomes for Brady to be the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate.
It additionally helps that Brady has absolutely anesthetized his aboriginal two tests this postseason. In the approved season, he struggled adjoin top-10 canyon defenses, averaging -0.09 Casual Net Accepted Credibility (NEP) per bead back. NEP is the accepted credibility metric we use at numberFire, and Casual NEP includes deductions for accepted credibility absent on abrogating contest such as sacks, incompletions, and interceptions. Brady ranked 28th out of 43 able quarterbacks in said split.
But the playoffs accept been different. Both Washington and the New Orleans Saints accept acceptable canyon defenses and can accomplish a canyon rush. But in those games, Brady averaged 0.34 Casual NEP per bead back. The Packers are the affliction canyon aegis he has faced in the playoffs, so he’s durably on the map in adjustment to differentiate from the crowd.
Rodgers additionally anesthetized a big analysis aftermost week. He had to face the Los Angeles Rams afterwards David Bakhtiari, and all he did was atom them with 0.55 Casual NEP per bead back. Accustomed the accent of Bakhtiari, that was a massive bang for the Packers’ outlook.
It’s additionally important to agenda that the Packers’ Anniversary 6 bomb was in a actual altered context. They didn’t accept Allen Lazard there, Robert Tonyan hadn’t absolutely burst out, and they absent Bakhtiari mid-game. This time, Lazard and Tonyan are at abounding capacity, and they can at atomic plan about not accepting Bakhtiari. They’re additionally at home, which won’t aching things.
The optimism about Brady and Rodgers is why we can accede absorption on this bold if we appetite to be different. It’s not as adult as the backward game, but if it goes massively overlooked, there are big advantages in loading up here.
There’s additionally amount to be had in the Packers’ casual game. Nobody is activity to blow Adams’ ambit of outcomes, but they do accept added pieces able of breeding a ceiling. Actuality are their ambition shares aback Lazard’s return.
Things are ambrosial alike amid Lazard and Tonyan, so we can authority them in a agnate regard. This is an absorbing atom for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, though.
With Lazard hitting paydirt aftermost anniversary and Tonyan actuality the best ambrosial non-Travis Kelce advantage at bound end, both are acceptable to be popular. Valdes-Scantling, though, had aloof 33 yards aftermost week, acceptation he’s acceptable to be third in this pecking order.
But Valdes-Scantling’s role aftermost anniversary wasn’t that bad. He was angry with Lazard for additional on the aggregation with eight targets, attached the best he had gotten all year. With how abounding of Valdes-Scantling’s looks are continued balls, he doesn’t charge a ton of looks to pay off.
If you’re arena things safe, Lazard is your guy. He gets added targets, and he’s added acceptable to booty his in. But Valdes-Scantling is a attenuate disregarded comedy on a two-game slate with a aisle to a 100-yard game, so we should booty advantage aback we accept the abdomen in tournaments.
It seems as admitting Mahomes will be acceptable to go afterwards logging addition bound affair on Thursday. That’s the good.
The bad is that we accept abrasion catechism marks about everywhere else.
That includes in the backfield as Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been bound in convenance both Wednesday and Thursday. This acceptable puts him on clue to play. How we appearance him for DFS depends on Friday’s convenance report.
If Edwards-Helaire gets in a abounding practice, we can feel ambrosial appropriate about him. Le’Veon Bell isn’t at abounding health, and Edwards-Helaire’s role had been on the acceleration afore his injury. His 74.2% breeze amount in Anniversary 14 was his accomplished of the absolute season.
We additionally could see the Chiefs be a bit added run-heavy in this game. Not alone is Mahomes ambidextrous with his toe injury, but the Bills actively arrive the Chiefs to run on them in Anniversary 6. It’s a acute action because you’d abounding rather see a blitz attack than a Mahomes bead back, so it wouldn’t be a abruptness to see article agnate this week. That would be a addition for Edwards-Helaire, who had a season-high 26 carries for 161 yards in that game.
That isn’t our best acceptable scenario, though. Accustomed the way abrasion letters tend to break, we can apparently accept that Edwards-Helaire will be bound afresh Friday and listed as questionable. That makes this a muddier situation.
If that happens, you accept to accomplish one of three assumptions about the team.
1. Edwards-Helaire is advantageous abounding to be the advance back. That would put him additional amid all active backs on the slate, abaft aloof Aaron Jones.
2. Edwards-Helaire is still banged up and plays a bound role. That’d accomplish Darrel Williams absolutely in comedy at $6,000 accustomed Bell’s bloom and the role Williams had aftermost week.
3. Edwards-Helaire is advantageous abounding to accept a role but not to be featured. This is the daydream book breadth they acceptable wind up as a breach backfield.
The botheration is that we aren’t activity to apperceive which of those three is accurate afore kickoff, unless Edwards-Helaire apprehension up actuality inactive. So we’ll accept to cycle the dice and booty some stands because one of those three possibilities is how things will comedy out in reality.
If you’re bushing out aloof one lineup, apprehend all the account and letters you can, adjudge which aftereffect is best likely, and body your calendar based on that. If you’re architecture multiple, you should still booty in as abounding advice as you can and comedy the percentages that way. In added words, if you anticipate there’s a 60% adventitious that Edwards-Helaire is a abounding go, afresh almost 60% of your lineups should accomplish that assumption.
The added abrasion catechism mark for the Chiefs is Sammy Watkins. Watkins absent aftermost anniversary but has accomplished both Wednesday and Thursday, potentially putting him on clue to acknowledgment from a two-game absence. That wouldn’t adapt our angle on Kelce and Tyreek Hill too much.
We did get a five-game sample on the Chiefs afterwards Watkins alternate from his aboriginal injury. In those bristles games, Hill and Kelce still got all the money looks.
Whether Watkins plays or not, they’re activity to get fed. Hill is the top receiver on the slate acknowledgment to his beam and the agreeableness of this game. We should additionally rank him advanced of Kelce amid the two because Hill’s the guy added acceptable to adhere a 40 burger.
The Watkins bearings has added of an appulse on how we appearance the amount options. Specifically, he’d concoction the address of everyone.
In that aloft five-game sample, none of Watkins, Mecole Hardman, or Demarcus Robinson anytime hit alike double-digit FanDuel points.
Ya abhorrence to see it. Especially with John Brown at aloof $5,500 on the added ancillary and Lazard and Valdes-Scantling in the added game, Watkins arena would accomplish these guys abutting to cross-offs.
If Watkins can’t go, afresh Hardman’s the guy we want. He had four targets and a blitz attack aftermost week, and the aggregation actively advised up touches for him. That’s not activity to appear with Robinson. We additionally apperceive Hardman is added acceptable to get abysmal looks, so a aisle to upside does exist. He’d rank beneath Brown for sure, but we could at atomic accede Hardman if Watkins sits again.
Speaking of Brown, he’s the best amount comedy on the slate. Again.
Even admitting Brown alone a donut on us in the Wild Card Round, his bazaar shares in the playoffs accept been bedrock solid.
Diggs is aristocratic and ranks additional abaft Hill amid the pass-catchers on the slate. But Brown’s bacon can advice you jam in added of those adorable studs.
It’s additionally accessible Brown’s role increases this week. Gabriel Davis has absent convenance the aboriginal two canicule this week, and Cole Beasley was added to the abrasion address Thursday with a knee injury. If Davis misses, those high-leverage looks he has been accepting will be up for grabs. Those could go Brown’s way. An absence for Beasley ability get Brown added bear looks. Either way, this is a guy to whom you’ll appetite affluence of exposure.
The receiver injuries are additionally impactful for Josh Allen. Straight up, Allen is the best quarterback comedy on the slate. With Mahomes’ injuries, Allen is the one arresting addition you can apprehend to run as he has averaged nine blitz attempts per bold in the playoffs. It’s additionally a high-total bold adjoin a non-threatening defense. He’s the ideal option.
But if both Beasley and Davis are banged up, things get a bit muddier. Davis has been abounding on those continued balls, and Beasley is the assurance blanket. That would lower Allen’s bang a bit and added access the allurement to be college on the aboriginal bold than the public. But if Beasley or Davis get the blooming light, Allen should be at the top of our account amid quarterbacks.
The hasty altercation is pertinent with Mahomes. We saw him get an aboriginal hasty touchdown aftermost week, and he ran a ton in the playoffs aftermost year. But afterwards the toe injury, he seemed afraid to booty off, active alone cautiously on one clutter afterwards the injury. It’s additionally accessible Mahomes is beneath able due to the ailments. As such, it ability not be a abhorrent abstraction to be lower on Mahomes than accord — as alarming as that is — and demography the accumulation elsewhere. There are aloof added paths to abortion with him than he usually has.
As for the Bills’ backfield, you apperceive what you’re accepting with Singletary. It aloof ain’t pretty.
Singletary has now played four abounding amateur afterwards Zack Moss. In those, he has averaged 68.5 yards from collapsed per game. Ronald Jones had aloof seven beneath yards aftermost anniversary while arena beneath than 30% of the snaps, his role could go up this week, and he’s $200 lower-salaried. Singletary is a third-tier active aback comedy due to his abridgement of a ceiling. You can bang him up in lineups with Allen, though, as it would accept the Bills would accomplish abounding trips to the red zone, in which case Singletary could accidentally abatement into the end zone. It’s aloof important to be agnostic of Singletary, alike on a slate defective in high-upside options.
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